Showing posts with label PLoS ONE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PLoS ONE. Show all posts

Sunday, 19 February 2012

The OA Interviews: Michael Eisen, co-founder of the Public Library of Science

Michael Eisen is an evolutionary biologist at University of California Berkeley and an Investigator of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. He is also co-founder of the Open Access (OA) publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS).
Michael Eisen

Founded in 2000, PLoS was conceived as an advocacy group for what only later became known as Open Access. PLoS’ first initiative was to publish an Open Letter and invite scientists around the world to sign on to it.

Those signing pledged that henceforth they would “publish in, edit or review for, and personally subscribe to only those scholarly and scientific journals that have agreed to grant unrestricted free distribution rights to any and all original research reports that they have published, through PubMed Central and similar online public resources, within 6 months of their initial publication date.”

Nearly 34,000 scientists from 180 countries signed the pledge; but while a small handful of publishers complied with the demands outlined in the letter, most blithely ignored it. Worse, most of the scientist signatories proved happy to forswear their own pledge, and continue publishing in the very journals that had turned a deaf ear to them.

Disappointed but undeterred, Eisen and the other two PLoS co-founders — biochemist Patrick Brown, and Nobel Laureate Harold Varmus — reinvented the organisation as a non-profit publisher, and in 2003 they launched an OA journal called PLoS Biology. PLoS Medicine followed a year later.

PLoS ONE


Today PLoS publishes seven OA journals and is also experimenting with new OA services like PLoS Currents, which aims to minimise the delay between the generation and publication of new research. Papers are published within days of being submitted.

PLoS was able to become a publisher thanks to a $9 million grant it received in 2002 from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. The challenge was to become financially sustainable before the grant ran out.

With this aim in mind, PLoS decided to levy a one-off article-processing charge (APC) for each paper it published. This avoids having to charge a subscription to those who want to access PLoS papers. Instead, the publisher can make all the papers it publishes freely available on the Web. Later dubbed Gold OA, this approach was originally pioneered by commercial OA publisher BioMed Central (BMC).

Many were sceptical that such a model could work, and not without reason: PLoS initially struggled to pay its way. But in 2006 the publisher launched PLoS ONE, a new journal that was not only radical in concept, but was to prove a financial saviour.

PLoS ONE is revolutionary in two ways. First, where journals are normally discipline specific PLoS ONE will consider any paper in any discipline within the hard sciences. Second, reviewers are told only to assess the technical validity of papers submitted, not their likely scientific importance or significance.

It turned out to be a winning formula, and PLoS ONE grew so rapidly that it is now the largest peer-reviewed journal in the world. It has published over 31,000 papers since 2006, 14,000 of them in 2011 alone, which represents 1 in 60 of all the papers indexed by PubMed that year.

Importantly, thanks to PLoS ONE, the publisher was able to announce last year that its annual operating revenues in 2010 had exceeded expenses for the first time.

But success has not come without controversy. Critics accuse PLoS of engaging in “bulk, cheap publishing of lower quality papers to subsidize its handful of high-quality flagship journals.” By doing so, they add, it is lowering the quality of published research.

Undoubtedly, the acceptance bar is much lower at PLoS ONE than at other journals. Where The Lancet and the New England Journal of Medicine accept fewer than 10% of papers submitted, for instance, PLoS ONE publishes around 65% of the papers it receives.

However, as the potential financial benefits of the PLoS ONE model became evident, traditional commercial publishers rushed to create PLoS ONE clones themselves. Today, therefore, PLoS ONE is as likely to be celebrated for pioneering a new type of megajournal as it is to be criticised for its no-frills peer review.

Research Works Act


But although subscription publishers have begun to warm to Gold OA, they remain deeply suspicious about the OA movement, particularly those who advocate so-called Green OA, or self-archiving — in which researchers continue to publish in traditional journals but then post their papers on the Web.

In other words, rather than paying to publish in an OA journal, a researcher may choose to publish (without charge) in a subscription journal, and then make the paper freely available in an institutional repository, or subject-based repository like PubMed Central.

Since self-archiving is parasitic on subscription journals, publishers have become increasingly antagonistic towards it, particularly as more and more research funders and institutions decide to mandate their researchers to self-archive (normally after an embargo period).

Publishers complain that this threatens the sustainability of the current publishing system, and so could destroy the peer review process on which the research community depends.

Their particular bĂȘte noire is the Public Access Policy introduced in 2005 by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), the largest source of funding for medical research in the world. The policy requires that all NIH-funded researchers make their papers freely accessible in PubMed Central no later than 12 months after publication.

Determined to overturn the NIH policy, publishers have in recent years lobbied lawmakers to introduce legislation that would outlaw it. As a result, the “Fair Copyright in Research Works Act” has been introduced twice in the US House of Representatives (in 2008 and 2009), although without success.

Then at the end of last year a reworked Research Works Act (RWA) was introduced by Representatives Darrell Issa (R-CA) and Carolyn Maloney (D-NY). Like the earlier bills, the RWA would roll back the NIH Public Access Policy. It would also prevent other US federal agencies from introducing similar mandates.

Since the RWA is an attack on Green, rather than Gold OA, it does not pose a direct threat to PLoS. Nevertheless, earlier this year Eisen began a campaign to stop the bill. This was no doubt partly motivated by a commitment to the principle of OA, but it was also an ideal opportunity to promote Gold OA, and thus PLoS.

In an editorial published in the New York Times on 10th January, for instance, Eisen called on researchers to “cut off commercial journals’ supply of papers by publishing exclusively in one of the many ‘open-access’ journals that are perfectly capable of managing peer review (like those published by the Public Library of Science, which I co-founded).”

Additionally, he added, “Libraries should cut off their supply of money by canceling subscriptions. And most important, the N.I.H., universities and other public and private agencies that sponsor academic research should make it clear that fulfilling their mission requires that their researchers’ scholarly output be freely available to the public at the moment of publication.”

Five days before his NYT editorial, Eisen had reported on his blog that a number of senior Elsevier executives had donated money to Rep. Maloney. “It is inexcusable that a simple idea — that no American should be denied access to biomedical research their tax dollars paid to produce — could be scuttled by a greedy publisher who bought access to a member of Congress,” he complained.

Sensing a potential PR disaster, a number of publishers rapidly distanced themselves from the RWA. Nevertheless, the bill has been welcomed by the American Association of Publishers (AAP). Since the AAP has some 300 members we can assume that many publishers support the RWA. Others publishers besides Elsevier will doubtless also have donated money to lawmakers.

Yet it was Elsevier that Eisen mainly targeted — on the grounds, he told me, that “[t]heir fingerprints are all over this bill”.

Further fanning the flames, Eisen has suggested that Elsevier’s vice president and head of global corporate relations Tom Reller has drafted publicity text about the RWA for Congresswoman Maloney. He has also designed an image for a “Boycott Elsevier” t-shirt (and here).

By publicly calling out Elsevier in this way, Eisen has sparked a widespread revolt against the publisher. Amongst other things, this has led to the creation of a boycott site that, as of this writing, has attracted around 6,500 signatures. Those signing it pledge not to publish in, or referee and/or perform editorial services for any Elsevier journals.

Only latterly has Eisen begun to point out that this is not just about Elsevier — suggesting, for instance, that the boycott should not have targeted only one publisher. “I wish they hadn’t focused exclusively on Elsevier,” he commented on his blog at the beginning of February. “[T]hey are hardly the only bad actors in the field.”

Eisen has also welcomed the re-introduction of the Federal Research Public Access Act (FRPAA). The FRPAA is a counter bill to the RWA. If passed it would require all the major agencies of the US federal government to introduce NIH-style mandates. In addition, the embargo period would be shortened to six-months.

However, Eisen has not had things all his own way. When, for instance, he responded to a post about the RWA on The Scholarly Kitchen blog (which is sponsored by the Society for Scholarly Publishing), he came under fire from the author of the post Kent Anderson, who repeated the now familiar criticisms of PLoS ONE.

“PLoS can publish very good journals (Medicine, Biology) when it adheres to traditional benchmarks of quality,” wrote Anderson. “However, these don’t make money for PLoS, so your organization had to lower its rejection rates severely and lower standards, two things that are completely predictable in your model if you’re cynical about it. To dress it up as “holier than” any other model is deceitful.”

In a heated public exchange with Anderson, Eisen gave as good as he got. But when it became too bad tempered Anderson responded by closing comments on the post, leaving Eisen with no option but to post insults on his twitter feed. It was not entirely clear who was more bruised by the exchange.

Implications


As the row over the RWA has grown in scale and vitriol, we are left wondeirng where PLoS, and particularly PLoS ONE, fit into the larger picture, and what it means for OA. As we noted, the bill is not a direct threat to PLoS. Indeed, it could, as Eisen hopes, encourage more researchers to embrace Gold OA.

But if researchers did take Eisen’s advice and boycotted subscription publishers in favour of OA journals, and did so in very large numbers, what implications might it have?

As a megajournal unconstrained by discipline, we could expect that many researchers would turn to PLoS ONE if they wanted to publish in an OA journal, particularly if they knew that there was a 65% chance of getting their paper published by doing so. But could PLoS ONE cope with a huge influx?

Eisen is confident it could. “[W]e have huge efficiencies of scale, and I think we could, in principle, handle the entire volume of scientific literature in the world”, he told me.

However, insiders point out that the PLoS editorial system has in the past struggled to cope. And while a new system was put in place in 2010 there have been further difficulties. These may just be teething problems, but we might want to take with a pinch of salt any claim that PLoS ONE can handle a limitless number of papers.

If PLoS did become overloaded, we might expect to see researchers flock to the growing number of what Jeffrey Beall has dubbed “predatory” OA publishers. These are new publishers that have emerged in recent years specifically in order to cash in on Gold OA’s pay-to-publish model, but whose peer review and publishing processes appear in many cases to be woefully inadequate (e.g. see here and here).

And if the RWA spat did trigger a sudden “gold rush” it would likely draw attention to another long-standing issue. We should not forget that many of those who decided to support OA did so in the belief that it would solve the affordability problem that has seen the research community increasingly struggle to pay the costs of disseminating its research.

The claim was that OA publishing would be cheaper than subscription publishing. It was as a result of this belief, perhaps, that one of the principle reasons given for launching a boycott against Elsevier was — in the words of UK mathematician Timothy Gowers — that it “charges very high prices.”

However, a glance at BMC’s APC Comparison Chart shows that choosing to publish a paper in an OA journal is not necessarily cheap either, and can cost as much as $5,000 a shot (certainly if a researchers opts for Hybrid OA).

And while PLoS’ fees are by no means the most expensive, it is worth nothing that, at launch, PLoS Biology and PLoS Medicine charged a “modest” fee of $1,500. Nine years later this fee has increased in price by 93%, to $2,900.

Because it offers a no-frills review process, PLoS ONE is less expensive ($1,350). Nevertheless, while Eisen maintains that “the marginal cost of processing an article is going down, and will continue to do so, asymptotically approaching zero” PLoS ONE’s APC has also grown over time, and is now 8% more expensive than when the journal launched.

(For purposes of comparison, a typical BMC journal like the Journal of Translational Medicine initially charged $525. Today it charges $1,970 — a 275% increase).

It is hard not to conclude, therefore, that Gold OA is unlikely to deliver on its price promise. We might also be justified in assuming that it will succumb to the same inflationary process that has made the research community so angry about subscription publishing.

Some argue that it is precisely the rise of megajournals like PLoS ONE that will drive down prices. However, it is not clear how offering a no-frills service at a lower price will lead to a fall in overall costs, particularly if higher acceptance rates lead to a greater number of papers being published, and thus an increase in the research community’s bills. It also does not help if that journal charges more than is justified for the service it provides.

Others maintain that the affordability problem is confined to biomedicine. This is argued, for instance by David Solomon and Bo-Christer Björk in a recent study that estimates the average APC at $906. However, the study included many journals that are based in the developing world and cater to local authors, as well as journals published by predatory OA publishers. 

Whence the costs?


All this invites an important question: Why is scholarly publishing so expensive?

Subscription publishers have tended to argue that the bulk of the costs arise from the work required to manage the peer review process, particularly in an online environment where there are no print costs.

Eisen, by contrast, implies that PLoS’ fees primarily arise from the technology costs associated with handling papers, not peer review. However, he maintains, these costs are falling, “because of increasing use of technology to convert manuscripts that come in from authors into publication-ready XML, HTML and PDFs.”

When I asked why — if costs are falling — PLoS ONE’s APC has not dropped to reflect the fall, he replied, “Our costs for PLoS ONE haven’t dropped that much yet because every paper still requires manual attention. As we achieve more automation, our costs and charges to authors will drop accordingly.”

Yet while Eisen says that PLoS ONE’s costs have already dropped (some), its prices have not gone down, but risen.

PLoS critics, of course, would express no surprise at this, and would doubtless remind us that the journal was not intended to reduce the cost of scholarly publishing, but to subsidise PLoS’ wider operation.

When I raised this claim with Eisen he responded, “[W]e spend more money on staff and direct expenses for PLoS Biology and PLoS Medicine than we take in on page charges for those journals by a million dollars or so. And we correspondingly take in more on page charges for PLoS ONE than we spend on PLoS ONE staff and publishing costs.”

However, he added, it is too simplistic to argue that PLoS ONE subsidises the other journals, since it also benefits from them. “For example, PLoS ONE gets a lot of papers referred from PLoS Biology, PLoS Medicine and the community journals. The revenue comes to PLoS ONE, but there are significant costs borne by the other journals.”

All in all, the suspicion must be that publishers will continue to ask the research community to pay more than it is able or willing to afford to publish its papers — unless a more drastic change takes place. Certainly wide scale take-up of Gold OA does not appear to offer a solution to the affordability problem.

On the one hand, the research community insists the problem is that publishers are too greedy, and so charge too much. On the other, publishers argue that the research community is simply unwilling to pay a fair price for an essential service.

Interestingly, one might feel the latter argument is implicit in one of Eisen’s comments to me. “Publishing costs money, and that money has to come from somewhere,” he told me. “As has been said in many places, the differences between open access and closed/subscription access is in how the organizations that support research pay for publishing.”

Right now we do not know what the outcome of the current revolt will be. It could lead to a mass take-up of Gold OA, or it may simply fizzle out — as happened when PLoS persuaded 34,000 researchers to sign its open letter in 2001. But it is hard to see how the former outcome would address the problem that led many to embrace OA in the first place.

Another scenario


There is, however, another possible scenario. Instead of sparking a mass conversion to Gold OA, the revolt might trigger a Green revolution. Some would feel that to be a more appropriate response to an attempt by publishers to outlaw self-archiving mandates. And in fact that is what is being called for right now at the London School of Economics.

Meanwhile over at the Math2.0 site researchers are mulling a number of options, none of which appear to involve Gold OA — which is described by one denizen of the site as an “author-paid-fee criminal practice”.

Amongst the various ideas being discussed is a campaign to encourage self-archiving specifically to “destabilize the current system”. There is also a proposal to create overlay journals based on papers posted in the pre-prints server arXiv. And yet another proposal calls for the development of researcher-controlled journals using Annotum — “an open-source, open-process, open-access scholarly authoring and publishing platform based on WordPress.”

Could the revolt sparked by Eisen develop into a more far-reaching rebellion than he called for? If history is any judge, probably not: OA advocates have been prematurely calling the tipping point for OA for some time now.

Nevertheless, as the likely financial implications of embracing Gold OA become more apparent, there is a growing sense that, if scholarly communication is to properly exploit the online environment, a more root–and-branch change will be needed. 

What better evidence of this, perhaps, than the conclusion reached by one-time Elsevier employee — and former BioMed Central publisher — Jan Velterop. Speaking to me recently, Velterop argued that the time has come for the research community to abandon pre-publication peer review in favour of something more like the “endorsement” model pioneered by ArXiv.

Essentially, he explained, this would mean, “replacing the ‘filter first, then publish’ by ‘publish first, then filter’.  The entire web works that way, and the exceptionalism of scientific publishing is no longer plausible, in my view.”

Were the research community to take this step, he added, it could hope to save “in the order of $3 billion a year”.

Ironically, Velterop’s views on peer review are very similar to those of Eisen, who has described pre-publication peer review as a “conservative, cumbersome, capricious and intrusive” process that “slows down the communication of new ideas and discoveries, while failing to accomplish most of what it purports to do”; and so, he told me, it should be “more or less completely” done away with.

There can be no doubt that PLoS ONE is a highly innovative service, and has proved extraordinarily popular. And there can be no doubt that Eisen is hugely proud of PLoS’ achievements, and genuinely wants to see scholarly publishing revolutionised.

But here is the kicker: Velterop reports that it costs arXiv just $7 to publish a paper. PLoS ONE still charges $1,350.

== SOME EXCERPTS FROM THE INTERVIEW ==


Below are some excerpted quotes from my conversation with Eisen. The main thrust of the interview was a discussion of PLoS ONE, but we discussed a number of related issues too. The full interview can be downloaded by clicking the link here, or the link at the bottom of the page.

*  Eisen on what for him has been PLoS ONE’s biggest achievement, and its biggest disappointment:

“I think the biggest achievement of PLoS ONE is not the raw number of papers it has published, but rather the number of really interesting, exciting and important papers it has published …

“The biggest disappointment is also clear. One of the several goals of PLoS ONE — and something that is essential for the long-term success of the model — was to catalyse post-publication commentary, discussion and assessment of published works.”

*  On critics’ claims that PLoS ONE is essentially a “cash cow”:

“I realize that many of the people who point this out mean it as a bad thing — that the role PLoS ONE’s success plays in our finances somehow diminishes the impact of our other successes. So it’s worth pointing out that other parts of our publishing operation are financially successful as well — all of the community journals (PLoS Genetics, PLoS Pathogens, PLoS Computational Biology) break even or generate a small surplus.

“I must say that I find it somewhat ironic and amusing that many of the same people who dismissed PLoS (and open access in general) as being the brainchild of naĂŻve idealists who didn’t understand their business, are now criticizing us for being TOO successful as a business.”

*  On whether it was important that one of the co-founders of PLoS was a former NIH director and Nobel laureate:

“[W]hether it mattered that Harold was former NIH director and Nobel laureate, I really have no idea. It certainly helped people to take us seriously — both in terms of getting funding, and support from the scientific community. We made a real commitment from the beginning to get high-profile members of the scientific establishment to back what we were doing, and where many of these people viewed Pat and me as flame throwing radicals, they couldn’t help but take Harold more seriously.”

*  On eLife, the new OA journal to be launched later this year by three major research funders:

“In the long run we should move to a system in which assessment of impact is decoupled from the primary act of publication. But I believe the launch of eLife will be a transformative point in the history of OA, as it should appeal to even the most conservative of scientists and make everyone feel comfortable publishing in OA journals.

“As to challenges, I think the biggest one will be that they will get inundated with papers and they will have to deal with their own success. But I’m confident they will.”

*  On the wave of PLoS ONE clones being introduced by subscription publishers:

“It was never our objective to take over the publishing world. Rather, our goal was to catalyse a transition from closed access to open access publishing by providing successful examples of open access journals for other publishers to emulate. And that is exactly what has happened. So I am all for it.

*  On whether the introduction of PLoS ONE clones by commercial publishers might prove the death knell for APC waivers:

[L]et me state emphatically at the outset that we will always grant such waivers — the absence of funds to pay the cost of publishing will never prevent us from publishing someone’s paper.”

*  On whether the APC should be viewed as the model for OA publishing, or merely a transitional model:

“I can see futures in which there are residual APCs that cover the marginal costs associated with publishing, which I expect to asymptotically approach zero. I can also see a future in which the costs of publishing are not paid on a per paper basis, but rather are borne by a coalition of research funders, as is done with eLife.”

*  On the concerns of some PLoS ONE academic editors that the journal’s publication rules mean that they have to accept papers that they do not believe offer any real value to the progress of science:

“We do not encourage the publication of papers that do not contribute to the progress of science. However, we believe that, as a general rule, when an experiment has been done where the methods are sound and reproducible, the data are reliable, and the conclusions justified by the data that the progress of science if best served if the experiment is published.”

*  On the failure of PLoS ONE to stimulate much post-publication commentary:

“[T]here is no doubt that this has not taken off at all … [T]his is somewhat understandable in that a) I don’t think the system we built really hits the mark in terms of the functionality it will take to do this well and b) because, until this year really, there hasn’t been a large enough body of literature to which we could apply such a system. This is the next frontier in publishing, in my opinion — and it’s something I hope PLoS will be focused on in a big way in the coming years.”

*  On whether pre-publication peer review should be abandoned?

“This I think we can and should more or less completely do away with — leaving only a very thin process for screening submitted articles to make sure they’re appropriate and real works of science.

“However, I believe strongly in a more general notion of peer review — scientists recording and sharing their opinions and ideas about any paper they read — be it at the time of publication or 100 years later.

“This needs to be our goal, and if we do this effectively, then pre-publication peer review will be completely irrelevant and will have been replaced by something infinitely more useful.”

*  On Eisen’s view that scholarly journals should be replaced by “a structured classification of research areas and levels of interest”:

“From the perspective of the research community, a “Nature” paper has nothing to do with the publisher or the ISSN of the journal in which it was published — it is simply the judgment of three or four reviewers that that paper is likely to be very important and will appeal to a general audience. Likewise a “Development” paper is one that is of high import to developmental biologists.

“Today we choose to encode this judgment in a journal title. But we could easily encode it in a simple structured way that captures the reviewers’ judgment of how important the paper is and who it might interest.

“So, for example, a Nature paper might get a 10 on likely impact, an “all biologists” in audience and a five on  probability of being correct, while a Development paper would get a 6 on likely impact, an “all developmental biologists” on audience and a 9 on probability of being correct.”

 *  On why advocating for Green OA alone is not enough:

“[I]f self-archiving ever started to gain real traction, the green light publishers have given to do it will immediately be withdrawn. It’s possible that, in the meantime, it would have destabilized the industry in some significant way, leading to its collapse. This would be good, but I doubt it will happen — the publishers aren’t that dumb.

“However, even if it did, we’d still need an alternative — so it’s always been our view that we should just skip this unstable middle stage and try to build a stable system built the way we think scientific publishing should work.”

####

If you wish to read the interview with Michael Eisen, please click on the link below. 

I am publishing the interview under a Creative Commons licence, so you are free to copy and distribute it as you wish, so long as you credit me as the author, do not alter or transform the text, and do not use it for any commercial purpose. 

To read the interview (as a PDF file) click HERE.

Friday, 26 August 2011

The Open Access Interviews: Wellcome Trust’s Robert Kiley

Over the past year Open Access (OA) publishing has gained considerable mindshare, not just amongst researchers and librarians, but publishers too. This has been helped greatly by the perceived success of the Public Library of Science (PLoS) — which in 2010 managed to cover its operating costs with revenue for the first time. But as it becomes increasingly likely that OA publishing will prove no less expensive than traditional subscription publishing, a couple of key questions arise: How much will Gold OA eventually cost? And how will the research community pay for it? I explored these questions recently with Robert Kiley, Head of Digital Services at the UK-based Wellcome Trust, one of the world's largest medical research charities.

The consensus is that viability for PLoS was eventually achieved thanks to PLoS ONE and the “light” peer review model that it has pioneered. Indeed PLoS ONE is widely described as a “cash cow”, since it is believed to be subsidising not just the publisher’s flagship journals but practically the entire PLoS enterprise. For this reason, no doubt, traditional publishers are currently rushing to create clones of what PLoS itself describes as the first of a new breed of megajournals.

Amongst those to announce PLoS ONE look-alikes in recent months are the American Institute of Physics (AIP Advances), Nature Publishing Group (Scientific Reports), the Company of Biologists (Biology Open) and Sage (Sage Open).

In addition, practically all subscription publishers now offer a Hybrid OA option. This allows researchers to have their papers made freely available on the Web even when they publish in a subscription journal — if they agree to pay an article processing charge (APC). Designed by publishers as a way to offer OA without loss of revenue, Hybrid OA is invariable charged at premium rates — which range from between $3,000 to $5,000 per paper.

In short, despite their initial rejection (not to say repugnance) of OA, publishers now view it as a lucrative new revenue stream to have opened up in the scholarly publishing space. Indeed, they appear to fear that unless they move quickly they may lose out in what some have characterised as a “gold rush”.

This new attitude was articulated on the Liblicense mailing list recently by publishing consultant Joe Esposito, who assured list members “OA can grow and commercial publishers can become even more profitable, in part by co-opting OA publishing.”

Dilemma

In the meantime, however, many in the research community have resigned themselves to the fact that OA publishing may never provide the cost savings that it was expected to deliver. As former director of Penn State University Press Sandy Thatcher put it recently on Liblicense, “[W]ith the gold OA model, you are entirely at the mercy of publishers, who will charge what they need to make their preferred profit margin and will not be any more transparent than they are now about their actual costs. End users will benefit, but will the costs to the system be any less?”

If costs do not fall the research community faces a dilemma, since it was widely assumed that OA would provide a solution to the long-standing serials crisis — the phenomenon whereby library budgets have consistently failed to keep pace with the rise in the cost of journal subscriptions (effectively it is libraries that pay for scholarly publishing).

To add to the challenge, in the short term OA can only increase costs, because during the transition research institutions are having to continue to pay subscriptions while also paying for OA membership schemes. The latter are subscription-like deals offered by OA publishers like PLoS, BioMed Central (BMC) and Hindawi to enable research institutions to block purchase free-at-the-point-of-use publication rights so that faculty members can make their papers Open Access without being billed personally. These too are usually funded from library budgets.

In addition, many universities have created Gold OA funds so that one-off grants can be awarded to researchers wanting to publish in OA journals for which the institution has no membership agreement.

To cap it all, these additional costs come at a time when the global financial crisis is squeezing university budgets to death. Rather than being able to provide additional funds, most universities are beginning to find that they need to take an axe to their journal subscriptions.

In its 2010 Study of Subscription Prices for Scholarly Society Journals, for instance, Allen Press published a list of universities that made “significant institutional subscription cancellations” last year. This included Georgia Tech, the University of California, San Francisco, Oregon State University, and the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

And this July The Chronicle of Higher Education reported that the University of Oregon and Southern Illinois University even felt compelled to cancel a number of “big deals”, which can mean depriving researchers of access to thousands of journals in one fell swoop.

Meanwhile on the other side of the Atlantic, Research Libraries UK (RLUK) has informed both Elsevier and Wiley-Blackwell that unless they agree to a 15% reduction in prices it will not renew its Big Deal contracts with them next year. This is serious: RLUK represents the so-called Russell Group of universities, whose membership consists of thirty major institutions, including Oxford, Cambridge and Manchester universities, Imperial College, the London School of Economics, and the British Library.

Safety net

In this kind of environment how can universities avoid eventually having to cancel their institutional membership schemes too — as in fact Columbia University did in 2009? And how long can they avoid having to close their Gold OA funds — as the University of Amsterdam did the same year.

In fact, Gold OA funds today tend to be more nominal than real. Having realised that demand could quickly outstrip available resources if OA took off, universities have in recent years started to impose rigorous eligibility rules on authors asking for assistance. When the Compact for Open-Access Publishing Equity (COPE) was founded in 2009, its stated policy made this explicit.

As the Director of the Office for Scholarly Communication at Harvard University Stuart Shieber explained at the time, “By design, the overall cost to a university of implementing the compact, in the short term, would be quite small. Hybrid open-access fees are explicitly eschewed, and true open-access fees tend to be found at present in just those areas of scholarship where grant support is most prevalent, reducing the underwriting load on the university substantially. Rough estimates based on the experience of the Berkeley Research Impact Initiative fall in the range of tens of dollars per faculty member per year.”

A year later Shieber was pleased to be able to report that, in practice, Gold OA funds are providing even less support than he had envisaged. Harvard’s own HOPE Fund, for instance, has to this day paid for only three OA papers.

In other words, the policy of many Gold OA funds is that if there is any alternative source of funding, and/or if the proposed journal does not meet a very strict set of criteria, no money will be made available. As Shieber points out, these funds should be viewed as “safety nets” alone. “Safety nets are useful even when they are not used.”

If institutions now start to cancel their OA membership schemes (which some believe provide pretty poor value anyway), the question inevitably arises: in light of the continuing financial squeeze, who on earth is going to pay for the “dramatic growth of Open Access” — as some characterise it?

An answer to this question is all the more pressing given that the fee waivers currently offered by many OA publishers could be under threat. With commercial publishers like Nature Publishing Group (NPG) entering the no-frills market created by PLoS ONE, it is anticipated that the waiver schemes could become rare, or even disappear altogether — a point made by Phil Davis on The Scholarly Kitchen blog earlier this year.

Dissemination costs are research costs

So who will pay for Gold OA? Shieber hinted at one alternative funding source in 2009: research funders. In his mind, no doubt, was the example of the Wellcome Trust, which in 2005 — when it announced its OA policy — stated that it believed “dissemination costs are research costs”. As a consequence, it said, in future it would foot the bill for any grantee who wanted to publish in an OA journal.

This decision cost Wellcome £622,000 ($1m) in 2005/6, and the bill has grown steadily over time. Last year the Trust forked out just over £3 million ($4.9m). And if and when OA publishing becomes the norm the cost could rise to £7.3 million ($12m) per annum, which represents around 1.25% of Wellcome’s current research spend.

Wellcome’s decision is good news for any of its funded researchers who want to embrace OA. Some, however, believe that it put the nail in the coffin of hopes that OA would reduce the cost of scholarly publishing. Unlike the funds created by COPE members, for instance, Wellcome is happy to pay for papers to be published in Hybrid OA journals — which, as noted earlier, charge premium rates.

With one of the world's largest medical research charities prepared to pay their asking price, critics complain, publishers have naturally come to assume that they can charge whatever they want for OA products — much as they have always done for journal subscriptions. As a result, critics add, the serials crisis will simply morph into a different kind of pricing impasse.

Others, however, argue that overpricing may not actually be possible in the current economic environment — as the stand taken by RLUK might seem to imply. Most research, they point out, is funded not by private charities like Wellcome, but by governments — and the current sovereign debt crisis afflicting the Western world has made money so tight that it just won’t be feasible to pay publishers the rates they want.

In fact, private funders are no less susceptible than governments to the financial turbulence we have witnessed in recent years. In 2008, for instance, the London Times reported that the Wellcome Trust had lost £1.5 billion ($2.4 billion) after some of its investments had turned sour the preceding year. This saw the Trust’s investments after debt shrink from £15.1billion to £13.1billion.

As a result, the amount of money Wellcome has available to fund research has fallen by £95m since 2007. And the continuing panics still sweeping through markets suggest that the situation is likely to get worse before it improves.

All in all, it is not at all clear today how Gold OA will be paid for going forward, or how OA publishing will develop.

Intriguingly, two months ago the Wellcome Trust announced that — together with the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) and the Max Planck Society — it plans to launch a new OA journal. Even more intriguingly, the three partners stated that no APCs will be levied “for a number of years”.

This will inevitably further reduce the amount of money that the Trust has available for funding research projects. But what does it portend?

Confident

With these thoughts in mind I recently emailed some questions over to Wellcome’s Robert Kiley.

As will be evident from the Q&A below, Kiley remains confident that Wellcome’s decision to pay for Gold OA was the right thing to do, and he does not believe it will have a significant impact on the amount of money Wellcome is able to make available to fund research.

He rightly points out that — compared to the shifts in value that the ups and downs of the market can inflict on the Trust's resources — the $12m that it may have to spend on Gold OA is small beer. Moreover, Kiley adds, that figure “assumes we pick up 100% of the OA costs.” Since most research is funded by more than one organisation, he explains, it is safe to assume that the other organisations funding the research will share any publication costs.

And while declining to say how much money Wellcome is investing in the new OA journal, Kiley insists that the percentage of its funds devoted to research dissemination (rather than research itself) will rise only “slightly” as a result.

Finally, Kiley expresses himself confident that OA publishing will prove cheaper than subscription publishing, particularly in light of the current wave of PLoS ONE-clones being launched. These, he points out, levy lower APCs than both Hybrid and pure OA journals (i.e. between $1,350 and $1,980).

This assumes, of course, that a sufficient number of Wellcome-funded researchers will be content to publish in less prestigious no-frills journals like PLoS ONE.

But given the straitened circumstances that the research community finds itself in today, perhaps the more important point is that if PLoS ONE’s prices are such that they can subsidise the larger PLoS enterprise (and spark a me-to “gold rush” as a result), then we must assume that publishers still believe they can ask the research community to pay premium prices, even when selling entry-level products that provide only a minimal service (PLoS ONE articles are not copyedited for instance).

The research community might justifiably wonder why publishers appear to be the only stakeholders that do not believe they have to tighten their belts.

Wellcome’s plans to introduce a new OA journal do, however, suggest an intriguing possibility: Although the three partners have certainly not said as much (in fact they have given a number of not entirely convincing reasons), it is tempting to speculate that the unspoken motivation for launching the journal could be a realisation that, in the age of the Internet, professional publishers have become an unnecessary and expensive luxury.

We could note, for instance, that the project’s FAQ states, “Online open access journals such as the PLoS titles and 'Nature Scientific Reports' are a step in the right direction. Our open access journal will also incorporate online technology to allow for an engaging, interactive experience, but will be staffed by experienced, active scientists and will use a faster, more transparent peer review system.”

Below I publish the email Q&A I had with Robert Kiley.

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Robert Kiley 

RP: I believe the research funded by The Wellcome Trust generates around 5,000 papers a year. Is that right? 

RK: Yes it is. 

RP: In 2005 the Trust introduced an OA mandate that requires all its funded researchers to either self-archive their final peer-reviewed manuscript in the UKPMC repository within six months of publication, or to publish them in Gold or Hybrid journals. To help them do the latter the Trust agreed to pay any OA charges incurred. 

RK: Correct. 

RP: I am told that Wellcome’s contribution to Gold OA costs consists primarily of block grants that it makes to around 30 large institutions. Other Wellcome-funded researchers have to apply to the Trust to have their grants supplemented on a case-by-case basis. Are the block grants based on an estimate of the number of papers that Wellcome grantees at those individual institutions are likely to generate, or is there a one-for-one relationship? 

RK: The block grants are based on an estimate of the number of papers that will arise from Wellcome-funded researchers at a particular institution. 

RP: Do the beneficiaries of the block grants supply Wellcome with statistics showing exactly how that block grant has been used? 

RK: At the end of each year, each institution supplies the Trust with a spread sheet showing what they actually spent on OA publication costs.

As with any grant, the institution can only claim against the grant commitment for money it has actually spent. I.e. this explains why the commitment funding levels are often higher than the actual funding spend.

Regrettable? 

RP: As I understand it, the costs arising from the Trust’s OA policy have grown over the past five years from £622,000 ($1 million) to just over £3 million ($4.9m). Is that correct? 

RK: This increase reflects the fact that more and more authors are complying with the Wellcome mandate, and for this many more are selecting the "author pays" option.

I guess it also reflects the growing availability of "pure" OA journals, from the stables of PLoS and BMC, and more recently from Wiley, BMJ, NPG etc. 

RP: If OA becomes the norm, then I understand that Wellcome expects these costs to grow to around $12 million (£7.3 million) per annum, which would represent around 1.25% of its total research spend? 

RK: Yes, but that 1.25% assumes that Wellcome is picking up 100% of the research publication costs. In reality, much of the research Wellcome funds is also funded by other funders. Thus, if a paper is attributed to more than one research funder then we would expect the publication costs to be apportioned as well.

We recognise that this splitting of OA costs is probably not fully in place yet, but with the development of "middleware" solutions — such as Open Access Key — the splitting of publication costs across funders should become easier. 

RP: What I take away from this is that in a fully OA world Wellcome could have around $12 million a year less available for funding research (as opposed to communicating it). I assume that previously these costs would have been met by research institutions (through journal subscriptions). Is that regrettable in any way? 

RK: To repeat the point, the $12m assumes we pick up 100% of the OA costs. The scale of support available for research is driven by our investment portfolio. 

RP: What does that mean in practice? 

RK: For example the total amount spent on grants in 2009/10 was £450m, compared to £490m in 2008/09 and £545m in 2007/08. The introduction of our OA policy has not impacted the funding available for research grants. See here for the details.

Costs 

RP: In a presentation you gave earlier this year at the annual conference of the Association of Subscription Agents and Intermediaries you reported that during a three month period at the end of last year Wellcome funded the publication of 440 articles. This cost the organisation just over $1million (£611,000), which averages out at $2,367 per paper (£1,447)? 

RK: Correct. Those figures were based on the 440 papers that we paid for during the last quarter of 2010. These articles were published in journals with a wide range of APCs, up to and including $5,000 for Cell Press. The median cost was $2,250 and the mode $3,000.

The recent RIN/CEPA/Ware study on transition models, by the way, argued that if the average Article Processing Charges were set at about £1,457 (or $2,185 — the estimate by Outsell of the 2009 average charge) then "UK universities would benefit from substantial annual net savings that we estimate at £2.8m (or £3.0m including non-cash savings), .....whilst at the national level the UK makes annual savings in funding costs of £9.7m"

As you say, in the piece of work I undertook I calculated that the average APC levied on Wellcome Trust authors was $2,367 — thus validating the estimates provided by Outsell, and confirming that the "low APC" modelled in this report is highly realistic.

We believe that the benefits of maximising the dissemination of Trust-funded research findings, via our open access policy, outweigh the costs. 

RP: As you imply, the RIN figures you cite assume that APC rates settle at a lower level. However, the report also says, “if average APCs were set at a level equal to the estimated current global average cost per article (£2,634), UK universities’ annual cash costs would rise significantly, leading to a high net cost to the UK relative to the other scenarios (other than licensing).” Your assumption presumably is that the average APC cost will fall by at least £1,177 from today’s price? 

RK: If you look at the raft of new, "pure OA" journals that have been announced over the past six months you will see that the APC is akin to the PLoS ONE APC. So, the APC for NPG's Scientific reports is $1,350; BMJ Open is £1,200 [$1,980], Open Biology (Royal Society £1,200); Biology Open (Company of Biologists) $1,350 etc. — all of which suggests that an average APC of around £1,457/$2,185 is realistic.

The RIN report also looked at the benefits (not just cash savings) that would arise if greater access were provided to each of the core user groups. Again, with an APC of around $2,200 the benefits cost ratio (BCR) is "very substantially positive, in the range 10.8-15.7".

New journal 

RP: As well as committing to pay all the Gold OA fees incurred by its grantees Wellcome recently announced — with HHMI and Max Planck — that it plans to launch its own OA journal. In doing so it does not intend to levy any publishing charges on authors "for a number of years". Presumably the Trust’s financial commitment to dissemination can be expected to grow even more going forward, removing further money from actually doing research. Would you agree? Do you have any figures on what these additional costs might be? 

RK: Yes, our support for this new journal will mean that we are spending (slightly) more on dissemination costs.

We have not disclosed how much we are investing in this new journal, but remember that this initiative is being jointly funded by the HHMI and MPS (as well as the Trust). Details about the new journal can be found here. 

RP: Wellcome is a private funder, and it was one of the first funders to embrace OA, so it has been very much in the vanguard of OA. Most research is funded by governments. Do you believe that they will follow Wellcome's lead and assume, as Wellcome does, that "dissemination costs are research costs", and so agree to pay all OA publication costs? 

RK: I think you will need to talk to RCUK etc. to get their view on this. That said, the RCs do already provide mechanisms for their grant holders to meet open access publications cost — either as direct costs through the grant, or indirect costs.

Anecdotally we hear that RCUK-funded researchers find it more difficult than Wellcome-funded researchers to meet OA costs. And, though I would agree that our mechanisms for meeting OA costs greatly simplify the process, a quick search on PubMed shows (for example) that in the past year there have been some 196 Medical Research Council-funded papers published in either PLoS ONE, PLoS Medicine, PLoS Biology or PLoS genetics.

The point I am trying to make is that, in this simple example, MRC researchers were able to meet the APCs levied by PLoS. 

RP: Or perhaps they were beneficiaries of the APC waivers currently provided by PLoS. As its FAQ puts it, “PLoS is committed to ensuring that our fee is never a barrier to publication and so we offer a waiver to any authors who do not have access to funds to cover our publication fees.” The problem with waivers, of course, is that they can be discontinued at any point. I am wondering, however, whether some of these costs are unnecessary in any case. It is widely believed, for instance, that far too many papers are published today (partly because researchers are evaluated by their institutions on the number of papers they publish). 

RK: Umm.. I think I might take issue with the assertion that "it is widely believed that far too many papers are being published" — I'm not sure this is a problem as such and there are actually some drivers for more papers to be published, such as those reporting negative results etc. And anyway, we — and I'm sure most other funders — would never evaluate purely on quantitative terms of course. 

RP: Thank you for your time. 

I discuss the affordability problem confronting scholarly publishing in an article on the “Big Deal” published in the September issue of Information Today. (More here)